The global burden of kidney cancer: trends in mortality and incidence with predictions to 2025

Over the past three decades, the incidence of kidney cancer has been increasing worldwide. Mortality trends, however, differed over time and across regions, showing downward trends in most high-income countries, but upward trends mainly in Latin America and a few Eastern and Central European countries. We provide updated figures on the epidemiology of kidney cancer worldwide. We analysed mortality data from the WHO in 33 selected countries worldwide from 2000 to 2023 or the latest available year. We computed age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) and evaluated temporal trends with joinpoint regression models. We predicted mortality figures for 2025, using a logarithmic Poisson count data joinpoint regression model. We analysed incidence from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volume XII. In 2020, the highest male ASMRs (5/6 per 100 000) were in Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Argentina. Female rates remained below 2/100 000, except in the Czech Republic and Hungary. Mortality declined for both sexes in most countries, except for Latin America. Predictions to 2025 suggest that kidney cancer mortality is expected to decline for both sexes in approximately all countries. The incidence of kidney cancer showed generalised upward trends. We observed differing trends between kidney cancer incidence and mortality. Kidney cancer mortality declined in most countries, likely reflecting reductions in smoking mainly among males, improvements in diagnosis and treatment, and better hypertension control. Incidence of kidney cancer has been rising in most high-income countries, likely reflecting widespread increases in the use of imaging techniques.