The Genome-wide Signature of Short-term Temporal Selection

Abstract Despite evolutionary biology’s obsession with natural selection, few studies have evaluated multi-generational series of patterns of selection on a genome-wide scale in natural populations. Here, we report on a nine-year population-genomic survey of the microcrustacean Daphnia pulex. The genome-sequences of > 800 isolates provide insights into patterns of selection that cannot be obtained from long-term molecular-evolution studies, including the pervasiveness of near quasi-neutrality across the genome (mean net selection coefficients near zero, but with significant temporal variance about the mean, and little evidence of positive covariance of selection across time intervals), the preponderance of weak negative selection operating on minor alleles, and a genome-wide distribution of numerous small linkage islands of observable selection influencing levels of nucleotide diversity. These results suggest that fluctuating selection is a major determinant of standing levels of variation in natural populations, challenge the conventional paradigm for interpreting patterns of nucleotide diversity and divergence, and motivate the need for the development of new theoretical expressions for the interpretation of population-genomic data. Significance Except for mono/oligogenic traits known in advance to be under strong selection, there is little information on genome-wide patterns of temporal dynamics of allele-frequency changes in well-defined and unmanipulated natural populations. A multi-year survey of a population of the microcrustacean Daphnia pulex provides insight into these matters. Genome-wide analysis of > 800 genetic isolates demonstrates that temporal variation in selection intensity is a major determinant of levels of nucleotide polymorphism and divergence. Most nucleotide sites experience fluctuating selection with mean selection coefficients near zero, with little covariance in the strength of selection across time intervals, and with selection distributed across large numbers of genomic islands of linked sites. These results raise challenges for the conventional interpretation of measures of nucleotide diversity and divergence as indicators of effective population sizes and intensities of positive/negative selection.