Probabilistic Crack Prediction for Masonry Structures on Expansive Soils

The shrink–swell action of expansive soils is one source of structure foundation movement responsible for widespread problems with respect to the serviceability performance of lightweight masonry structures. The most obvious problem is that of cracking in masonry walls. Numerical models for soil movement and structural response have been combined to develop a probabilistic model for crack prediction. The model is capable of predicting the likelihood of cracking and the expected crack widths based on variability in both external effects and structural response. The ultimate aim is to develop rational design criteria for the serviceability design for masonry structures.