Luminal narrowing after percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty. A study of clinical, procedural, and lesional factors related to long-term angiographic outcome. Coronary Artery Restenosis Prevention on Repeated Thromboxane Antagonism (CARPORT) Study Group.

BACKGROUND The renarrowing process after successful percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) is now believed to be caused by a response-to-injury vessel wall reaction. The magnitude of this process can be assessed by the change in minimal lumen diameter (MLD) at follow-up angiography. The aim of the present study was to find independent patient-related, lesion-related, and procedure-related risk factors for this luminal narrowing process. A model that accurately predicts the amount of luminal narrowing could be an aid in patient or lesion selection for the procedure, and it could improve assessment of medium-term (6 months) prognosis. Modification or control of the identified risk factors could reduce overall restenosis rates, and it could assist in the selection of patients at risk for a large loss in lumen diameter. This population could then constitute the target population for pharmacological intervention studies. METHODS AND RESULTS Quantitative angiography was performed on 666 successfully dilated lesions at angioplasty and at 6-month follow-up. Multivariate linear regression analysis was performed to obtain variables with an independent contribution to the prediction of the absolute change in minimal lumen diameter. Diabetes mellitus, duration of angina < 2.3 months, gain in MLD at angioplasty, pre-PTCA MLD, lesion length > or = 6.8 mm, and thrombus after PTCA were independently predictive of change in MLD. Overall prediction of the model was poor, however, percentage-correct classification for a predicted change between -0.1 to -0.4 mm was approximately 10%. Lesions showing no change or regression (change > -0.1 mm) and lesions showing large progression (< or = -0.4 mm) were more predictable (correct classification, 59.5% and 49.7%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS Renarrowing after successful PTCA as determined with contrast angiography is a process that cannot be accurately predicted by simple clinical, morphological, and lesion characteristics.