JWST's PEARLS: Temperatures of Nine Highly Magnified Stars in a Galaxy at Redshift 0.94 and Simulated Stellar Population Dependence on Stellar Metallicity and the Initial Mass Function

We present stellar atmosphere modeling of JWST NIRCam photometry of nine highly magnified individual stars in a single galaxy at redshift z=0.94 known as the Warhol arc, which is strongly lensed by the galaxy cluster MACSJ0416. Seven of these transients were identified by Yan et al. (2023). The nine sources are all likely red supergiants with temperatures of T~4000K. We present new longslit spectroscopy of the Warhol arc acquired with Keck-I and the Large Binocular Telescope, and use these data to constrain the arc's oxygen abundance to be 12+log(O/H)=8.45+-0.08. We perform a microlensing simulation on synthetic stellar populations using a range of stellar metallicities and initial mass function slopes. The temperature distribution of the simulated detectable stars is sensitive to the choice of stellar metallicity, and setting the stellar metallicity equal to the arc's nebular metallicity (log(Z*/Zsun)=-0.24) produces a simulated temperature distribution that is consistent with the observations, while lower stellar metallicities (log(Z*/Zsun)<-0.75) produce simulated temperatures that are inconsistent with the observations. The expected detection rate is strongly anticorrelated with the IMF slope for alpha>1.2. For the canonical IMF slope alpha=2.35, the simulation yields expected transient detection rates that agree with the observed detection rates in the HST Flashlights filters, but over predicts the detection rate by a factor of ~3-12 (<2sigma tension) in the JWST filters. The simulated detection rate is sensitive to the choice of stellar metallicity, with lower metallicities (log(Z*/Zsun)<-0.75) yielding a significantly lower simulated detection rate that further reduces the modest tension with the observations.