Incident Type 2 Diabetes Duration and Cancer Risk: A Prospective Study in Two US Cohorts

Abstract Background The influence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) duration on cancer incidence remains poorly understood. Methods We prospectively followed for cancer incidence 113 429 women in the Nurses’ Health Study (1978-2014) and 45 604 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1988-2014) who were free of diabetes and cancer at baseline. Cancer incidences were ascertained by review of medical records. Results In the multivariable-adjusted model incident, T2D was associated with higher risk of cancers in the colorectum, lung, pancreas, esophagus, liver, thyroid, breast, and endometrium. The pooled hazard ratios (HRs) ranged from 1.21 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.06 to 1.38) for colorectal cancer to 3.39 (95% CI = 2.24 to 5.12) for liver cancer. For both composite cancer outcomes and individual cancers, the elevated risks did not further increase after 8 years of T2D duration. The hazard ratio for total cancer was 1.28 (95% CI = 1.17 to 1.40) for T2D duration of 4.1-6.0 years, 1.37 (95% CI = 1.25 to 1.50) for 6.1-8.0 years, 1.21 (95% CI = 1.09 to 1.35) for 8.1-10.0 years, and 1.04 (95% CI = 0.95 to 1.14) after 15.0 years. In a cross-sectional analysis, a higher level of plasma C-peptide was found among participants with prevalent T2D of up to 8 years than those without T2D, whereas a higher level of HbA1c was found for those with prevalent T2D of up to 15 years. Conclusions Incident T2D was associated with higher cancer risk, which peaked at approximately 8 years after diabetes diagnosis. Similar duration-dependent pattern was observed for plasma C-peptide. Our findings support a role of hyperinsulinemia in cancer development.