Improving Near‐Real‐Time Coseismic Landslide Models: Lessons Learned from the 2016 Kaikōura, New Zealand, Earthquake

Research Article| March 27, 2018 Improving Near‐Real‐Time Coseismic Landslide Models: Lessons Learned from the 2016 Kaikōura, New Zealand, Earthquake Kate E. Allstadt; Kate E. Allstadt aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, P.O. Box 25046, DFC, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, kallstadt@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Randall W. Jibson; Randall W. Jibson aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, P.O. Box 25046, DFC, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, kallstadt@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Eric M. Thompson; Eric M. Thompson aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, P.O. Box 25046, DFC, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, kallstadt@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Chris I. Massey; Chris I. Massey bGNS Science, 1 Fairway Drive, Avalon 5010, P.O. Box 30‐368, Lower Hutt 5040, New Zealand Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar David J. Wald; David J. Wald aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, P.O. Box 25046, DFC, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, kallstadt@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Jonathan W. Godt; Jonathan W. Godt aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, P.O. Box 25046, DFC, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, kallstadt@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Francis K. Rengers Francis K. Rengers aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, P.O. Box 25046, DFC, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, kallstadt@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information Kate E. Allstadt aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, P.O. Box 25046, DFC, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, kallstadt@usgs.gov Randall W. Jibson aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, P.O. Box 25046, DFC, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, kallstadt@usgs.gov Eric M. Thompson aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, P.O. Box 25046, DFC, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, kallstadt@usgs.gov Chris I. Massey bGNS Science, 1 Fairway Drive, Avalon 5010, P.O. Box 30‐368, Lower Hutt 5040, New Zealand David J. Wald aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, P.O. Box 25046, DFC, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, kallstadt@usgs.gov Jonathan W. Godt aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, P.O. Box 25046, DFC, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, kallstadt@usgs.gov Francis K. Rengers aU.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, P.O. Box 25046, DFC, MS 966, Denver, Colorado 80225, kallstadt@usgs.gov Publisher: Seismological Society of America First Online: 27 Mar 2018 Online Issn: 1943-3573 Print Issn: 0037-1106 © Seismological Society of America Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2018) 108 (3B): 1649–1664. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120170297 Article history First Online: 27 Mar 2018 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Kate E. Allstadt, Randall W. Jibson, Eric M. Thompson, Chris I. Massey, David J. Wald, Jonathan W. Godt, Francis K. Rengers; Improving Near‐Real‐Time Coseismic Landslide Models: Lessons Learned from the 2016 Kaikōura, New Zealand, Earthquake. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2018;; 108 (3B): 1649–1664. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120170297 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietyBulletin of the Seismological Society of America Search Advanced Search Abstract The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is developing near‐real‐time global earthquake‐triggered‐landslide products to augment the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. The 14 November 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura, New Zealand, earthquake provided a test case for evaluating the performance and near‐real‐time response applicability of three published global seismically induced landslide models. All three models obtain shaking estimates from the USGS ShakeMap, which is updated and sometimes changes significantly in the hours to days after an earthquake. The Kaikōura earthquake is a particularly valuable event that helps us better understand how changes to the ShakeMap affect the landslide models because the ShakeMap evolved significantly over several weeks as multifault rupture and seismic data were incorporated. We used the detailed landslide inventory available for this event for qualitative landslide model evaluation. We found that once a point source was replaced with an approximate rupture extent in ShakeMap, the landslide models were all successful at roughly identifying the area of highest hazard. This is notable, given that the models are relatively simple, coarse in resolution, and are based solely on input proxies that are globally available. However, all of the models dramatically overpredicted the hazard level, which indicates that improvements can be made. Subsequent updates to the ShakeMap resulted in improvements to model performance by some metrics and declining performance by others. In all cases, details of the ShakeMap strongly controlled the spatial pattern, even when those details were erroneous, such as the inclusion of a fault segment that did not rupture. If maps of landslide hazard are to be used effectively for rapid response, then we need to understand and clearly communicate the control that ShakeMap has over the models and how that typically evolves with time and is (or is not) reflected in reported uncertainties. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.