How does HF-DFT achieve chemical accuracy for water clusters?

Bolstered by recent calculations of exact functional-driven errors (FEs) and density-driven errors (DEs) of semi-local density functionals in the water dimer binding energy [Kanungo et al., J. Phys. Chem. Lett. 2023, 15, 323], we investigate approximate FEs and DEs in neutral water clusters containing up to 20 monomers, charged water clusters, and alkali- and halide-water clusters. Our proxy for the exact density is r2SCAN50, a 50% global hybrid of exact exchange with r2SCAN, which may be less correct than r2SCAN for the compact water monomer but importantly more correct for long-range electron transfers in the non-compact water clusters. We show that SCAN makes substantially larger FEs for neutral water clusters than r2SCAN, while both make essentially the same DEs. Unlike the case for barrier heights, these FEs are small in a relative sense, and become large in an absolute sense only due to an increase in cluster size. SCAN@HF produces a cancellation of errors that makes it chemically accurate for predicting the absolute binding energies of water clusters. Likewise, adding a long-range dispersion correction to r2SCAN@HF, as in the composite method HF-r2SCAN-DC4, makes its FE more negative than in r2SCAN@HF, permitting a near-perfect cancellation of FE and DE. r2SCAN by itself (and even more so, r2SCAN evaluated on the r2SCAN50 density), is almost perfect for the energy differences between water hexamers, and thus probably also for liquid water away from the boiling point. Thus the accuracy of composite methods like SCAN@HF and HF-r2SCAN-DC4 is not due to the HF density being closer to the exact density, but to a compensation of errors from its greater degree of localization. We also give an argument for the approximate reliability of this unconventional error cancellation for diverse molecular properties. Finally, we confirm this unconventional error cancellation for the SCAN description of the water trimer via Kohn-Sham inversion of the CCSD(T) density.