Global spatiotemporal optimization of photovoltaic and wind power to achieve the 1.5 °C target

Limiting global warming below 1.5°C calls for achieving energy systems with net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions likely by 2040, and the pledged actions under current policies cannot meet this target. Few studies have optimized global deployment of photovoltaic and wind power, leading to high uncertainties in the capacity and costs of mitigation. Here we present a strategy involving construction of 22,821 photovoltaic, onshore-wind, and offshore-wind plants in 192 countries to minimize the levelized cost of electricity. We identify a large potential of cost reduction by combining coordination of energy storage and power transmission, dynamics of learning, trade of minerals, and development of supply chains. Our optimization increases the capacity of photovoltaic and wind power, accompanied by a reduction in costs of abatement from $140 (baseline) to $33 per tonne CO2. Our study provides a roadmap for achieving energy systems with net-zero CO2 emissions, emphasizing the physical, financial, and socioeconomic challenges.