Food production: a mega water challenge

This chapter analyses the pressure on the Earth System caused by escalating agricultural production from the perspective of efforts to feed a growing human population. The focus is on the situation by 2050. Particular attention is paid to improvements in water productivity and efforts to close the currently large yield gap in the developing world. Presented estimates reveal what can be achieved on what is currently cropland. What emerges is a carrying capacity overshoot for more than half the world’s population, which must be compensated for through virtual water transfers in food traded from water surplus countries. The chapter analyses the ability of the agricultural system and its support systems to cope with shocks and change in the Anthropocene era, and the adaptability and social–ecological resilience required to deal with a more turbulent world.