Decomposition Strategies for Eliciting Expert Knowledge: Judgements of Dangerousness

Abstract : This research note discusses one important finding from decision aiding research, that people often have relevant knowledge that they do not use effectively when making a judgement or decision. Research has shown, however, that simple 'wholistic' judgements can be improved upon through an approach that breaks up or decomposes the problem into a series of sub-problems, or components, each of which can be understood more easily and judged separately. The components are the assembled according to a logically prescribed set of combination rules to yield a solution, estimate, or prediction. In the present paper, we outline how a decomposition approach may help a large consortium of expert judges to utilize their own knowledge base more effectively, in an extremely difficult and important judgement task -- (the task examined is assessment of dangerousness among people who have threatened to assassinate the President of the United States). Keywords: Decomposition principles, Knowledge elicitation, Decision analysis, Expert judgements, Problem solving.